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FrozenGate by Avery

Raffle! Win Big Prizes! (And help fund LPF!)

bryce007 said:
I didn't see your post at first, but Kenom poked me and showed me :)

Sent you a PM Dave. If you are going to combine shipping with glenn, then just put my thermal compound with my other stuff also. Thanks :)
Click to expand...

If you want me to hold it, just let Glenn know. Even if we don't share shipping (we should) I live just 15 minutes from him. Getting and giving to Glenn is no problem.

Peace,
dave

***********************************************************************

Here are the people that won one of the prizes I donated. Please PM me with your shipping address.

Peace,
dave

SHIPPED - Glutton - 245mW red burning module W/ Rkcstr driver, Donated by Dave
SHIPPED - Glutton - 1mW bare tube HeNe W/ PSU(12V), Donated by Dave
SHIPPED - Glutton - AC-DC voltage converter, Donated by Dave

SHIPPED - Lasher - 1mW bare tube HeNe W/ PSU(12V), Donated by Dave
SHIPPED - Lasher - 5-pack of black "happiness" wooden matches, Donated by Dave

 SHIPPED - FireMyLaser - 50mW Newwish style bluray pointer, Donated by Dave, (daguin)

SHIPPED - Jayrob - Senkat red diode (300mA = 200mW) donated by Dave

SHIPPED - Tech_Junkie - Senkat red diode (300mA = 200mW) donated by Dave

SHIPPED - ReNNo - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave

SHIPPED - Yobresal - Senkat red diode (300mA = 200mW) donated by Dave

SHIPPED - Byrnz93 - silver Newwish style host W/ button, switch, and foam ring Donated by Dave


Aberration - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave

Martianpc - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave

lasersbee - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave

wolfhunter9154 - black (rubberized) Newwish style host, Donated by Dave

Quisp - 3mW red 3.3mm module W/ APC (3V), Donated by DavE




@ Glenn -- We can still combine on the below members if you want


Quisp
Aberration
lasersbee

bryce007 (Bryce just wants me to hold his with some other stuff I have for him)

HOLDING FOR LATER SHIPPING
bryce007 - Nova "star" lens sized for an Alpha, Donated by Dave
bryce007 - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave

Peace,
dave
 
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nikokapo said:
Jaseth purchased 40 tickets.
Quantity of tickets purchased (total): 398

X: Winning prize [quantity]


We use a Binomial (Bernoulli) distribution, with p: Probability of winning ; q: Probability of not winning.

p = favorable cases / total cases = 40 / 398 = 0,1
q = 1 - p = 0,9
n: number of drawn tickets = 68
Probability of X = 1 (winning ONE prize)
X--Bi(68 ; 0,1) = (68!/1!*(68-1)!)*(0,1^1)*(0,9^68-1) = 0,00584463


I hope I didn't miss anything, though the calculated probability is rather small...
Click to expand...

hope i'm not repeating someone, because i just saw u insist that whoever multiplied all those was incorrect. But in fact he was correct. U cant use the binomial here, because its not a bernoulli probe each time (well it is, but the numbers differ).
For the first prize, the porbability of winnin is (number of tickets purchased)/(total no of tickets)-now thats ur P (40/398). Then the second prize its (number of tickets u purchased or number or tickets u purchased-1 (in case u have won the 1st prize))/(398-1)..now that probability is different from the 1st one.

U use the binomial distribution when u have an array of objects, and u get one of those objects, u do a bernoulli probe(dunno if thats the name in english- its when u just see if something is true or false...u should know the name of it as ur studying Prob & statistics, i just dont know it in english), and return that object to the array. thats why u have combinations in the beggining, its the chace of it ocurring in a given Bernoulli probe.

so what ur binomial said, was that drawing 68 tickets, one at a time, with u returning the ticket to the bucket, and u not winning.

what u should use it the hipergeometric distribuition, that states (wiki is faster, ctrl-c, ctrl-v :p) "In probability theory and statistics, the hypergeometric distribution is a discrete probability distribution that describes the number of successes in a sequence of n draws from a finite population without replacement, just as the binomial distribution describes the number of successes for draws with replacement." So sets theory (direct translation from the portuguese "teoria de conjuntos" teoria-theory, conjuntos-sets, so i dunno if thats correct) syas u should use hipergeo(0,398,40,68), or as the guy that multiplied all those numbers did (that would be (330/398)*(329/397)*(328/396)*...)

i also noticed ur a physics student... Are u studying physics engineering (like me^^ awesome stuff) or physics only??
 
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Oh, and im not inciting to anything...im just trying to do some corrections to the maths here^^ will be helpful in ur exam^^

im glad everything has been dropped^^id be happy just to participate...i have never been lucky, so i wouldnt expect to win a thing..

but then...i didnt get even a ticket...i just wanna cry now...back to my lil corner...
enjoy :p
 
Even though I didn't win anything I'm still glad to have participated in the raffle. As Dave and the others said, probability doesn't guarantee results, but I wasn't really expecting much from 3 tickets anyways. Congratulations to all the winners, and of course the forum, which is getting the best benefit of this.
 
ok, that was harsh.

ill stay out, but it was a misunderstanding, and the information was incorrect. Whoever read that and didnt know if that was correct or not, would stay with wrong info. Corrections should be done, or we would never have lasers^^
 
Thanks for the great raffle everybody, and especially to Glenn for organizing everything :)

Here are the winners from my products, Please PM me with your shipping details:

DH item Winners list:

SBW 23 Dorcy Jr. Full body Heat Sink donated by Dark_Horse
SBW 67 Dark_Horse "Reactor-Pack" Uranium-marble set (pack of two in each)

Morenberg 24 Dorcy Jr. Full body Heat Sink donated by Dark_Horse (Shipped)

Morenberg 37 LPC Sled donated by Dark_Horse Link: Dark Horse Custom (Shipped)

Quisp 36 PHR sled donated by Dark_Horse Link: Dark Horse Custom (Shipped)

raybo 64 Dark_Horse "Reactor-Pack" Uranium-marble set (Shipped)

pyrotech 65 Dark_Horse "Reactor-Pack" Uranium-marble set (Shipped)

Flaminpyro 66 Dark_Horse "Reactor-Pack" Uranium-marble set (Shipped)

bobhaha 68 Dark_Horse "Reactor-Pack" Uranium-marble set (Shipped)

Thanks again,
Barry
 
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LordKaramazov said:
hope i'm not repeating someone, because i just saw u insist that whoever multiplied all those was incorrect. But in fact he was correct. U cant use the binomial here, because its not a bernoulli probe each time (well it is, but the numbers differ).
For the first prize, the porbability of winnin is (number of tickets purchased)/(total no of tickets)-now thats ur P (40/398). Then the second prize its (number of tickets u purchased or number or tickets u purchased-1 (in case u have won the 1st prize))/(398-1)..now that probability is different from the 1st one.

U use the binomial distribution when u have an array of objects, and u get one of those objects, u do a bernoulli probe(dunno if thats the name in english- its when u just see if something is true or false...u should know the name of it as ur studying Prob & statistics, i just dont know it in english), and return that object to the array. thats why u have combinations in the beggining, its the chace of it ocurring in a given Bernoulli probe.

so what ur binomial said, was that drawing 68 tickets, one at a time, with u returning the ticket to the bucket, and u not winning.

what u should use it the hipergeometric distribuition, that states (wiki is faster, ctrl-c, ctrl-v :p) "In probability theory and statistics, the hypergeometric distribution is a discrete probability distribution that describes the number of successes in a sequence of n draws from a finite population without replacement, just as the binomial distribution describes the number of successes for draws with replacement." So sets theory (direct translation from the portuguese "teoria de conjuntos" teoria-theory, conjuntos-sets, so i dunno if thats correct) syas u should use hipergeo(0,398,40,68), or as the guy that multiplied all those numbers did (that would be (330/398)*(329/397)*(328/396)*...)

i also noticed ur a physics student... Are u studying physics engineering (like me^^ awesome stuff) or physics only??
Click to expand...


I used the binomial in the first calculation, I knew there was something wrong and thus I added the "there might be a mistake there". You're right, thanks for the clarification, although I did say he had to use the hypergeometrical model/distribution.
(You can talk to me in Spanish or Portuguese, I'm from Argentina ;)).

Not physics, but Industrial Engineering is what I'm studying.

Gonna go back to studying some more :D



HOLDING FOR LATER SHIPPING
bryce007 - Nova "star" lens sized for an Alpha, Donated by Dave
bryce007 - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave
Click to expand...

WHAT? Why?

Why does HE get his packages held and not me? I want all of my non-existant prizes held too!

jealous.jpg
 
daguin said:
Here are the people that won one of the prizes I donated. Please PM me with your shipping address.

Quisp - 3mW red 3.3mm module W/ APC (3V)
Click to expand...


scopeguy20 said:
I will be sending out these winners' items:

Quisp 7th GLP 532nm 50 mW
Click to expand...


Dark_Horse said:
Thanks for the great raffle everybody, and especially to Glenn for organizing everything :)

Here are the winners from my products, Please PM me with your shipping details:

Quisp 36 PHR sled donated by Dark_Horse Link: Dark Horse Custom
Click to expand...



PM's sent.

Thanks to everyone!...:beer:
 
scopeguy20 said:
I will be sending out these winners' items:
Yobresal 6th GLP 532nm 50 mW
Quisp 7th GLP 532nm 50 mW
2007Revolution 8th GLP 532nm 50 mW
Tech_Junkie 21 Used and cosmetically cracked but working MP3 player
Tech_Junkie 28 LPC sled
moninosis 9th 50 mW 532 nm green waterproof laser
Extrm2Rick 38 SF-AW210 BR diode
T_Warne 40 SF-AW210 BR diode
Doofus 41 SF-AW210 BR diode
raybo 43 SF-AW210 red diode
Aberration 46 SF-AW210 red diode
Unreal_JMan 27 3X 5 mW 660 nm modules w/ drivers
Dusty 33 Blu-ray Blocking Goggles
blue lasers 35 Blu-ray Blocking Goggles
o0ICE0o 56 Aluminum Project Box
lasersbee 57 ABS Project Box
bryce007 60 10 g tube heat compound
Jaseth 61 10 g tube heat compound
T_Warne 62 Axixz module

Can I be emailed Please, with your addresses?

Dave and Flaminpyro, I have.
Click to expand...

hi Glenn,
i will most probaly trade the goggles so i i willwait a bit to tell you my address.if i trade them i will tell you to who i trde them and send you his shipping address.
 
Hey Raffle winners...

Byrnz99.... roddenberry.... and rpaloato....

Your auction prizes (as discussed) have been shipped
on Nov 30 2009 to the addresses you supplied...

Contact me for User Instructions when you receive your
prizes.. (we are still updating them as we speak)...;)

Jerry
 
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Here are the people that won one of the prizes I donated. Please PM me with your shipping address.

Peace,
dave

SHIPPED - Glutton - 245mW red burning module W/ Rkcstr driver, Donated by Dave
SHIPPED - Glutton - 1mW bare tube HeNe W/ PSU(12V), Donated by Dave
SHIPPED - Glutton - AC-DC voltage converter, Donated by Dave

SHIPPED - Lasher - 1mW bare tube HeNe W/ PSU(12V), Donated by Dave
SHIPPED - Lasher - 5-pack of black "happiness" wooden matches, Donated by Dave

 SHIPPED - FireMyLaser - 50mW Newwish style bluray pointer, Donated by Dave, (daguin)

SHIPPED - Jayrob - Senkat red diode (300mA = 200mW) donated by Dave

SHIPPED - Tech_Junkie - Senkat red diode (300mA = 200mW) donated by Dave

SHIPPED - ReNNo - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave

SHIPPED - Yobresal - Senkat red diode (300mA = 200mW) donated by Dave

SHIPPED - Byrnz93 - silver Newwish style host W/ button, switch, and foam ring Donated by Dave

SHIPPED - Martianpc - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave

SHIPPED - ]wolfhunter9154 - black (rubberized) Newwish style host, Donated by Dave

SHIPPED - Quisp - 3mW red 3.3mm module W/ APC (3V), Donated by Dave

SHIPPED - lasersbee - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave



Aberration - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave



Peace,
dave
 
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