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FrozenGate by Avery

Raffle! Win Big Prizes! (And help fund LPF!)






twhite828 said:
Ahh. I'll defer to your formal background and poke around on Wikipedia.

Just out of curiosity, what would you consider the likelihood of two occurrences, each with a probability of 10%, occurring in a row? I'd always assumed it was 1%, because I thought concrete percent chances (I mean like a die) were multiplicative. It makes sense that way when I think about it.

-Trevor
Click to expand...

What you asked for is what's called a "Conditional probability", where you calculate the probability of X after a Y event happened. It's written like P(X/Y), and there's a way to calculate it, search for Bayes theorem.
 
Jaseth said:
Well luckily Glenn hasn't got my address as far as I know, so he wouldn't be able to ship something to me even if he is so extremely kind that he would sacrifice even more of his own time and money on this raffle.

I do not believe that I "should have" won something, but I do believe that the probability of me not doing so is so exceptionally tiny that it is far more likely that a simple human mistake has been made. Glenn is welcome to step forward and say "Shit happens, all your tickets are there and you got unlucky" if that is the case, but when dealing with such a huge amount of numbers I think that the risk of a mistake is very high, even to a man as nice and dedicated as Glenn. Is it wrong that I consider him a human and think that there is even the slightest risk that a mistake has occured?
Click to expand...

WOW! You are both egocentric and immature (or is that redundant).

Glenn is likely to LIE about making a mistake and then offer to pay you your ticket money back. Unfortunately, that ticket money will come out of his pocket. He is likely to feel it is better to tell a small lie (and lose some money) than to have you upset. He will hurt himself in order to make you feel better. That's how nice he is. That's pretty tough for an egocentric brain to grasp, but it is a real possibility. That's why I warned him not to "do" anything.

However, you feel so "cheated" that you would rather confront him than accept the reality of math. You don't want "charity." You want to "win." Well, you didn't win. If you don't want charity, accept that fact.

Peace,
dave
 
nikokapo said:
What you asked for is what's called a "Conditional probability", where you calculate the probability of X after a Y event happened. It's written like P(X/Y), and there's a way to calculate it, search for Bayes theorem.
Click to expand...

Very interesting.

Let me pitch you this example. There's 100 people. Ten percent are chosen at random. There was a ten percent chance of being chosen. Ten percent (one of them) is chosen at random from that ten percent originally chosen, yielding one from the original sample. One hundred people had two 10% chances to be chosen, which came out to a final 1% chance in the end.

Based on that, wouldn't a 40/394 then a 40/393 then a 40/392 and so forth work the same way, if we solely want to calculate the probability of continuing to not be drawn sixty times - assuming that none of those 40 are drawn, allowing the probabilities to be "concrete" like the ten percent example?

-Trevor

EDIT: Erm... Niko, maybe we should continue our discussion through private messaging. I think my fascination with this flavor of math could be fanning the flames. :( My apologies.
 
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Guys lets not turn this great event into something heated.

This was done to help the forum. Everyone knew going into this that your money was a donation to keep this little corner of the interwebs up and running for the good of all our members.

It was not suppose to be about buying so many tickets you were sure to win big.

Don't ruin what was a great idea and a fun event by bickering.

Glen,

Thank you again for such a fun raffle I for one was glad to be a part of it and could have cared less if I won or not as long as this forum that has taught me so much is kept up and running.

Lasher
 
Here's a little story for all of you.

I did not spend a dollar on my tickets, that's right not even a penny!
I promised to send Krutz some free 635nm diodes a few months ago, he tried his best to help me out with a problem so I told him they would be "on the house", tax time rolled around and I just forgot to send the diodes to him.

Skip ahead a few months.....
I saw a thread about 635nm diodes and Krutz just happened to post in that thread and it jogged my memory. I told him that I totally forgot and sent the diodes his way a few days later, I also reminded him that the diodes are at no cost what so ever. Krutz turns around and buys 10 tickets for the raffle in my name and I tell him it was deffinetly not nessesary.

You should of seen the smile on my face when I saw who the first place winner turned out to be. :)

Karma?


Ray
 
Is this correct?? GLP-111-532-50 (2X'C' CELLS) $323.36-- dang!! congrats to the winners and much thanks to Glenn---any winners looking to trade what they won?
 
Thanks, Glenn, for the effort you put into this! I'm looking forward to playing with the 1" uranium marble I won. :)
 
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Wow this is awesome, I actually won something for once! :D

I wonder who Brynz93 is though...:whistle: lol

If anyone is interested to trade for a NewWish style host then ask away
 
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Glen, Thanks for putting together and managing this raffle. You did a freakin' awesome job! Congrats to all the winners! and hey, if you didn't win anything please consider your ticket purchase to be a donation to this great forum. Thanks for your support!
 
Holly Crap.....
I just read all the turmoil about 40 tickets being bought...

Hey Jaseth... would you have questioned the authenticity
of the draw results if you had won at least 2 prizes... :thinking:

I really need an answer to to this one from you....:cool:

Jerry
 
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