Benm
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- Joined
- Aug 16, 2007
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Yes, there's a reason why hurricane prediction models look like this.
Sadly that's the best we can do at the moment. The longer ahead the more uncertain the location becomes.
Predicting what will be hit in say 12 hours is doable, but where it will hit the US mainland -exactly- is not possible even a few days in advance.
A similar issue exists with islands: it's very hard to tell if a hurricane will sweep over it and destroy everything, or just pass by on the side leading to crazy waves and all but little destruction.
This holds true in both the atlantic and pacific - for example in the philipines it's often hard to predict what island(s) will be hit even a day in advance.