SITUATION OVERVIEW
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DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR OR OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM MATTHEW
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY. EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTAINING THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS, STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WILL MOVE
VERY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE VERY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD EXTENSIVE TO DEVASTATING WIND IMPACTS WILL BE FELT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS LOFTED BY EXTREME WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BREACHING
STRUCTURES, UNPROTECTED WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EFFECTS SUCH AS THESE
HAVE NOT BEEN EXPERIENCED IN CENTRAL FLORIDA IN DECADES. LOCAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED WHAT OCCURRED DURING THE HURRICANES OF
2004. EXPECT WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.
INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, THE THREAT IS HIGH FOR SUSTAINED HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME FRIDAY MORNING WITH A HIGH THREAT FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FARTHER INLAND OVER LAKE COUNTY.
WITH AN EXPECTED TRACK CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE, THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE
THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING IS HIGH TO EXTREME. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES, WITH 4 TO 7 FEET OF INUNDATION EXPECTED
OVER INDIAN RIVER, MARTIN, AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTY BARRIER ISLANDS.
LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG BEACHES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 12 TO 18 FEET AND
PRODUCE ROUGH, POUNDING SURF RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OF
COASTAL FLOODING FROM DUNE BREACHING, ALONG WITH VERY SEVERE BEACH
SCOURING AND SAND DUNE EROSION.
SIGNIFICANT DOWNWIND PILING AND SURGING OF WATER WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY, LAGOONS, AND INLETS. THE CLOSE APPROACH OF
MATTHEW`S EYE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST MEANS PROPERTIES
FACING EAST AND WEST ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WIND DRIVEN PILING OF WATER. ADDITIONALLY, WIND DRIVEN
PILING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BANKS OF THE SAINT JOHNS
RIVER IN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS, WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
FREQUENCY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. SATURATED SOILS IN MANY AREAS
FROM HEAVY SEPTEMBER AND EARLY OCTOBER RAINFALL WILL HOLD VERY LITTLE
ADDITIONAL WATER BEFORE WATER QUICKLY BEGINS TO POND, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. STANDING WATER WILL BE CAPABLE OF QUICKLY
RISING, ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS, AND COULD ENTER HOMES AND
BUSINESSES DURING MATTHEW`S PASSAGE.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. ENSURE FINAL PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
READINESS PLANS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
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* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE DEVASTATING
IMPACTS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, SOME WITH COMPLETE ROOF
AND WALL FAILURES. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES. DAMAGE
GREATLY ACCENTUATED BY LARGE AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS
MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS.
- NUMEROUS LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND
ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. MANY BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- WIDESPREAD POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.
* SURGE:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE DEVASTATING
IMPACTS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
IN THIS AREA INCLUDE:
- WIDESPREAD DEEP INUNDATION, WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING GREATLY
ACCENTUATED BY POWERFUL BATTERING WAVES. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO
BUILDINGS, WITH MANY WASHING AWAY. DAMAGE GREATLY COMPOUNDED
FROM CONSIDERABLE FLOATING DEBRIS. LOCATIONS MAY BE
UNINHABITABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.
- NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS WILL BE WASHED OUT
OR SEVERELY FLOODED. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY
BECOME STRESSED.
- EXTREME BEACH EROSION. NEW SHORELINE CUTS POSSIBLE.
- MASSIVE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, PIERS, AND OTHER
COASTAL STRUCTURES. NUMEROUS SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM
MOORINGS WITH MANY LIFTED ONSHORE AND STRANDED.
* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- MAJOR RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT MANY EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN
MULTIPLE PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY
BECOME DANGEROUS RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY
BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER MANY STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR WASHED
AWAY. MANY PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER ESCAPE ROUTES.
STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF MOVING WATER WITH
UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME DANGEROUS.
MANY ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT.
* TORNADOES:
PROTECT AGAINST A DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER
THE EXECUTION OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS SEEING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND
COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE
HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND SMALL BOATS TOSSED ABOUT.
DANGEROUS PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.
