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2019-nCoV - VERY CRITICAL SITUATION. !DANGER!

RedCowboy

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It has proven to be unwise to dismiss based on stats like the ones posted above... economy will recover eventually but, allowing a virus like this to run amuck is extremely dangerous without taking slow measured steps. I know of several people whom are all very physically fit /active people nearly die from this disease late 20's- mid 30's. True, some people don't show many serious symptoms. They are a minority of people. Opening 100% up suddenly is not a smart idea and will likely lead to what we see in Singapore now. Transmission explosion!
I expect the worst is yet to come in the US and we don't want to open up 100%.......well we shouldn't, but we do need critical infrastructure to stay up and we could let the young and healthy who don't have high risk people in their household make their own choices about taking the risk which is low fot the young and healthy, but I don't think we should open up 100%, never said that. I do expect we will see a 2nd wave of new cases rising sharply and we will need to adapt area by area, I think putting the young and healthy with no high risk persons at home to work would be a good idea for the opening up that people want to see rather than opening up for all ages, high risk need to plan on staying home for the next 12 months.
 
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CurtisOliver

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It has to be remembered that the fit and young can suffer from the virus too. Also they are the best carriers. It is impossible to say if you are at risk from it. You can have an underlying condition you wasn’t even aware about or never considered to be a severe factor before in any other illness you’ve had. I’ve learnt this the hard way.
 

RedCowboy

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The young and fit are much less likely to have a severe case and those who have already had it should be immune so when deciding who should go back to work 1st it's only logical to consider these factors. I don't see locking down everyone for a year as a possibility and so far locking down as we have done it in the US has resulted in a growing number of infected, granted the numbers are not growing as fast as they would have been but locking down alone will not starve this virus out of existence.
That said I expect we will have to find a balance that will vary by location until we have a vaccine or widespread community immunity and I expect we will try to go back to work too fast the 1st time although I hope we can make adjustments on the fly to minimize the impact without having to take extreme measures and really locking down tight, hopefully more testing will shed some light on where we stand and hopefully we already have a lot more community immunity that we think, we shall see.
 
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Cyparagon

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Most of the deaths are older people 85% are over 60 so people under 40 who are healthy and don't live with high risk people should not be locked down if they can work
Even if you could enforce that to any degree, you're going to have a lot of pissed off 41 year-olds. Keeping it simple and treating everyone the same will ensure a higher compliance.
 

paul1598419

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If we have a safe and effective vaccine within 18 months it will be outstanding as this will be the first time this has happened with a new virus. When I was quite young the scourge was polio. Salk had come out with a good vaccine in 1954, but because people feared polio only second to the atomic bomb many places were allowed to release vaccines early. In 1955 one of these were released and not only caused many children to be infected with polio, but killed several, others being put into iron lung machines to breath for them and crippling many others. This was from the release of less than 200,000 vaccines mostly in the west. The deadly vaccine was rolled out by Cutter Pharmaceuticals.
 
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paul1598419

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I am compelled to make note..As I live in Michigan/USA !!! Words cannot begin to express my complete and utter disgust at the citizens of Michigan who held a protest against the restrictions here. NOT that they did it....but HOW they did it !!! No masks...crowds, No doubt spreading this disease !! Yea...We are free to be STUPID. We are free to protest ( And I value that right )....but their behavior was just plain ignorant !!

Only problem....Stupid behavior used to engage the process of Natural Selection....NOT as much these days, Not in this circumstance.

Get a grip!! Study history, Review what occurred in the Spanish Pandemic in 1918. A second spike, much worse than the first....the first spike in the spring of 1918, the second in October of 1918. Will we ever learn from history....???

Look, this Quarantine is emotionally a huge burden. For so many a huge finical upheaval. I get it !! I hate it !! But....our joint/national and regional behaviors must be driven by science and the Medical community.... Not the immaturity of impatience. That is just plain NUTS !! Open the valve.....
S L O W L Y !!!

That said, I do not trust very much !!! Government, Big Pharm.....???? I could go on an on !! It does sound like I am talking outta both sides....and...If you think that...You are right !! So it Goes !!

Anyway, the above borders on political....but this monster has become political !! I must say....we need a mass infusion of testing....Antibody testing to be specific.

Enough said....for now !!

CDBeam
These protests are not just grassroots events. There is an article in the Washington Post today that links all of them to the right wing group Convention of States. The president of this PAC is Mark Meckler who learned this as co-founder of Tea Party Patriots, and draws a salary of $250,000. Ken Cuccinelli and Ben Carson are also group members who had positions in the Trump administration. Stephen Moore, trump's campaign adviser in 2016 called for a shutdown of Wisconsin's capital. Moore who also worked for the Heritage Foundation, a very right leaning PAC. Fortunately, only a few dozen people attended the protests in Wisconsin.
 

Seoul_lasers

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The young and fit are much less likely to have a severe case and those who have already had it should be immune so when deciding who should go back to work 1st it's only logical to consider these factors. I don't see locking down everyone for a year as a possibility and so far locking down as we have done it in the US has resulted in a growing number of infected, granted the numbers are not growing as fast as they would have been but locking down alone will not starve this virus out of existence.
That said I expect we will have to find a balance that will vary by location until we have a vaccine or widespread community immunity and I expect we will try to go back to work too fast the 1st time although I hope we can make adjustments on the fly to minimize the impact without having to take extreme measures and really locking down tight, hopefully more testing will shed some light on where we stand and hopefully we already have a lot more community immunity that we think, we shall see.
Yes, while in principle it would sound great to get the economy back on track ( I agree) , the problem is all it takes a single individual or 3 to restart a second or 3rd wave of infections.. potentially much wore than the first wave. The decision to open up must be done properly and incrementally, otherwise you risk exacerbating the damage that has already been done.

The protesting in Michigan shows a total lack of understanding of the dangers associated with the Virus.
Take the example of Singapore as what could happen..


Short term pain for long term gain...
 

RedCowboy

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People are protesting government overreach, arresting a man in a boat alone on a lake who is not spreading any virus, arresting a man playing catch with his son in a park who is not spreading any virus, a bunch of people sitting in their cars listening to a church service were ticketed and they were not spreading virus, this is the dictatorship that Americans will not tolerate and were protesting, we can take restrictions that work to control the spread but not in excess of that, not for political agendas.

Even during our shelter in place the numbers are going up every day, we are not going to eliminate the virus this way only slow it down so we can deal with severe cases in our hospitals which we are and we are now ahead of, so building community immunity as fast as we can handle the severe cases while protecting the high risk is what we can do as we wait for a vaccine that may be a year or more away and may have issues.

We can't feed and shelter an entire nation for a year or more who doesn't go to work waiting for a vaccine that may only be partly effective or who knows how effective, we have to find a balance as we build community immunity and we can't become socialist/communist in the process, people in America won't allow it, people in America would rather get sick and take their chances except for the high risk of course and those who want socialism.

That said this will likely be a long ugly ordeal and many will get sick, some will die and some will blame blame blame as if there was an option that would have solved everything, there was no magic bullet, maybe if China had been honest early on maybe, but now this is global and will be with us for a while, our choice is how do we live with it and at what costs, we can hope for a good vaccine but we have to plan as if it's not coming for a long time.

That means locking down hot spots and protecting high risk so we can deal with severe cases and building community immunity while maintaining critical infrastructure and letting as many people work as is possible, restoring a new normal as much as is possible, it wont be without issues and it won't be simple but blaming and exploiting politically won't help, it will only work against our common goals.
 
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Seoul_lasers

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People are protesting government overreach, arresting a man in a boat alone on a lake who is not spreading any virus, arresting a man playing catch with his son in a park who is not spreading any virus, a bunch of people sitting in their cars listening to a church service were ticketed and they were not spreading virus, this is the dictatorship that Americans will not tolerate and were protesting, we can take restrictions that work to control the spread but not in excess of that, not for political agendas.

Even during our shelter in place the numbers are going up every day, we are not going to eliminate the virus this way only slow it down so we can deal with severe cases in our hospitals which we are and we are now ahead of, so building community immunity as fast as we can handle the severe cases while protecting the high risk is what we can do as we wait for a vaccine that may be a year or more away and may have issues.

We can't feed and shelter an entire nation for a year or more who doesn't go to work waiting for a vaccine that may only be partly effective or who knows, we have to find a balance as we build community immunity and we can't become socialist/communist in the process, people in America won't allow it, people in America would rather get sick and take their chances except for the high risk of course.

That said this will likley be a long ugly ordeal and many will get sick, some will die and some will blame blame blame as if there was an option that would have solved everything, there was no magic bullet, maybe if China had been honest early on maybe, but now this is global and will be with us for a while, our choice is how do we live with it and at what costs, we can hope for a good vaccine but we have to plan as if it's not comming for a long time.
I appreciate people wanting freedom, but in this case all it could take is one unsuspecting person to transmit the virus to dozens of people. The spread is exponential after this. It isn't a dictatorship as a decree from WHO or CDC isn't based on a political agenda rather one out of concern for the health of the greater populous. Again, individually we can all greatly affect change - this will only occur with cooperation together. There is the old saying which speaks volumes here: United we stand or divided we fall. If you act selfishly in this situation there is a great potential to inflict further damage ( prolonging the economic damage). I get that there will be people that will struggle economically through this, that's going to be a given!.. but to allow for people go back to work as usual or go to the beach without social distancing measures right now is akin to suicide.
 

RedCowboy

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The beach, a movie theater, a bar are non essential, they are actually dangerous in this case and we should NOT be letting people go back to these jobs yet, I do agree with that.
People who keep a safe distance from others should not be harassed, such as those sitting in their cars listening to a sermon or the man alone in a boat or someone playing catch with his son in a park.

I expect a lot of office work could be done from home with a skeleton crew at the actual office for physical document production also with instant testing construction workers and labor could be tested daily but we don't want to go back to work too fast because of the delay/incubation, that brings up the question when along the line of incubation will instant testing be accurate ?
If accurate instant testing machines can be used to test employees daily then that could help a lot.

I was thinking about instant testing at grocery store entrances but really people should shop at home and let delivery drivers work who can be tested each day when they start.
 
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Snecho

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They opened a beach in Florida and literally everyone flocked there

Had pictures of the beaches absolutely packed but lost them.

I'm sure you could Google the news story.
 

RedCowboy

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They opened a beach in Florida and literally everyone flocked there

Had pictures of the beaches absolutely packed but lost them.

I'm sure you could Google the news story.
Yea, that's a bad idea at this point in time, we will see how that plays out, I expect we will see a sharp rise where this is going on and have to backtrack, it's going to happen my state big time and I am not happy about it.

Understand I am talking about a measured return to work, not flooding beaches and movie theaters.

On a positive note the places where the spread has snowballed and people have gone back to locking down will have more community immunity for the next go round, the idea it to pace it out so we don't get overwhelmed and protect the high risk.
 

paul1598419

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To quote the Lt. Governor of Texas, "there are some things worth dying for like, the economy". I guess bowling is also essential in Georgia. :eek:
 

RedCowboy

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If you owned a bowling alley you might think so, but living on the dole you don't have to worry about going to work or maintaining a business.
 
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Seoul_lasers

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If you owned a bowling alley you might think so, but being a broke ass hippy living on the dole you don't have to worry about going to work.
Well, there's bound to be many more broke hippies if people continue to ignore the CDC. Hopefully a vaccine can be found before a 2nd or 3rd wave of this virus.
 
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RedCowboy

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I disagree with reopening bowling alleys, I think it's much too soon, as I said earlier I am unhappy with what my state is doing reopening to much too fast, I hope we get away with it somehow but it makes me nervous that we could become the next New York, sadly there's not much that I can do about it but write my Governor which I have done.

I have been tracking my states numbers and we will see how things change, we gained 1000 cases yesterday from the day before, 19600 to 20600 now that we will be reopening many businesses I will see how the numbers change in the weeks ahead.

My State has had 846 deaths of the nations 44575 deaths.

In the US cases went up 26,000 yesterday from 776K to 802K

In pauls State of Washington state 692 people have died from covid19 with
91% of covid19 deaths being people 60 years old and up and
1% of their covid19 deaths are people 0-39 years old and
8% are from 40-59 years old.

This demonstrates what I was saying about people under 40 being at much lower risk.

BTW the majority of Washington states covid19 deaths have been in King county, this is where so many junkies live in tents and on the streets.



Apparently people also protested Gov. Jay Inslee's stay at home orders in Washington state too.




--------------------------------------------------------------
***UPDATE ***
CDC confirmed today that the 1st covid19 death was in California weeks earlier than originally thought.
 
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