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2019-nCoV - VERY CRITICAL SITUATION. !DANGER!

Ears and Eggs

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I think it's best this thread stays open, some real good info has been shared here.

The political discussion can continue, but keep it in the designated thread:

 



RedCowboy

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Thank you Hap and Ears, I am more than happy to give the politics a rest. :)

Italy has a lot of older people but their average person age is only 3 years older than the average U.S. person, yet they have a 9% covid19 death rate.........I would think if they had a mutated strain we would hear about it but then again maybe not.
I see looking at traffic cams that people in my state are out and about in mass, everyone really needs to stay home for a couple of weeks and see if we can't stall the accelerated spread as I hear some hospitals are running short of supplies and space already, that said the USNS Comfort is headed to New York right now and it has a 1000 beds which will help.
 

Seoul_lasers

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Thank you Hap and Ears, I am more than happy to give the politics a rest. :)

Italy has a lot of older people but their average person age is only 3 years older than the average U.S. person, yet they have a 9% covid19 death rate.........I would think if they had a mutated strain we would hear about it but then again maybe not.
I see looking at traffic cams that people in my state are out and about in mass, everyone really needs to stay home for a couple of weeks and see if we can't stall the accelerated spread as I hear some hospitals are running short of supplies and space already, that said the USNS Comfort is headed to New York right now and it has a 1000 beds which will help.
2 big contributing factors to the high mortality rate in Italy seems to be linked to the rates of smoking ( esp. in the South) and how people greet each other. Combine this with a large +65 population and you've got a perfect storm.
France is also having an equally rough time with the illness and seem to be reporting more youth casualties than Italy is. --- Going to research this a little more as I am not sure how reliable that stat is.
Story from 2 days ago:


Now, about your suspicion about a mutation occurring...

Doctors in Wuhan are bemused. Healthcare workers in this central Chinese city where the coronavirus first emerged have observed several instances in which patients have left hospital with no remaining traces of the virus in their bodies and then tested positive for the coronavirus a second time.

10% of patients seem to have been “re-infected”, according to one hospital and several quarantine centres in Wuhan, where daily life is gradually returning to normal after several months of confinement.
In all, up to 10 percent of coronavirus patients
source France24 news.


If this story is accurate, we could likely see clustering of new cases well into the summer.

Hopefully this story is NOT correct. -- we probably have another virus tagging along with COVID-19?

Anyone with virus knowledge, I'd like to hear about this claim. Sounds downright odd to me.
 
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paul1598419

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Today in the US there have been more than 2000 deaths with 120,000 confirmed cases of infection with this virus. That gives a death rate of 1.67%. Now this may increase, decrease or remain the same over time, but it is statistically relevant right now.
 

Seoul_lasers

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Today in the US there have been more than 2000 deaths with 120,000 confirmed cases of infection with this virus. That gives a death rate of 1.67%. Now this may increase, decrease or remain the same over time, but it is statistically relevant right now.
Again, that's what has been reported so far. Error in reporting is no doubt high as the situation is so fluid.
Today we have the highest single day increase in BC thus far--- 96 confirmed cases in one day.
 

paul1598419

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We have been in a locked down state here for about a month. Are you practicing social distancing in BC? If you are incapable of widespread testing this seems to be the best precautions you can take in the meantime. This can actually stop the spread if everyone is in on it.
 

Seoul_lasers

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We have been in a locked down state here for about a month. Are you practicing social distancing in BC? If you are incapable of widespread testing this seems to be the best precautions you can take in the meantime. This can actually stop the spread if everyone is in on it.
Yes, we have been testing like crazy and practicing social distancing. The problem is not enough front line staff. We have a critical shortage of doctors and nurses. Too expensive here to go to medical school and there is 0 incentives to do so. Nobody wants a $180-200,000 student loan.
 

Hap

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I have heard reports of some hospitals using UV light to disinfect used medical equipment such as gowns. I found that interesting :)

-Alex
 

Seoul_lasers

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You can get UVC bulbs from Philips in just about any size of fluorescent tube. T5 and T8 are quite common.
$15-$28 each typically.

They generate a significant amount of ozone and Nozone (NOx) as one would expect.

At home I have a 400W UVC quartz lamp which has a remote timer. It is from the 1980s. Actually ran it a few times and it can actually cause photochemical reactions within 10 minutes on white paper. Easily flood a room with ozone within 30min-1hr.

Good bye COVID19 and your retinas.
 

CurtisOliver

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lasersbee

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2 big contributing factors to the high mortality rate in Italy seems to be linked to the rates of smoking ( esp. in the South) and how people greet each other. Combine this with a large +65 population and you've got a perfect storm.
France is also having an equally rough time with the illness and seem to be reporting more youth casualties than Italy is. --- Going to research this a little more as I am not sure how reliable that stat is.
Story from 2 days ago:
It's interesting that you mention this...
When I saw the numbers for Italy, Spain, France and now Quebec
(the highest infection rate in Canada as of a few days ago) it got
me thinking why these areas..
My thoughts are... In all those areas the standard greeting is with
a cheek kiss. Here in Quebec the Males do not do this with each
other but Male to Female and Female to Female is a common
practice when greeting.
It may be difficult to stop this habitual learned over time greeting
and may have contributed to the higher infection rates...

I'm just speculating here... I could be 100% wrong.

Jerry
 

Seoul_lasers

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It's interesting that you mention this...
When I saw the numbers for Italy, Spain, France and now Quebec
(the highest infection rate in Canada as of a few days ago) it got
me thinking why these areas..
My thoughts are... In all those areas the standard greeting is with
a cheek kiss. Here in Quebec the Males do not do this with each
other but Male to Female and Female to Female is a common
practice when greeting.
It may be difficult to stop this habitual learned over time greeting
and may have contributed to the higher infection rates...

I'm just speculating here... I could be 100% wrong.

Jerry
perhaps it could also be a this, average age, population density and a combination of smoking as well combined.

a) Quebec has the second highest consumer of tobacco after Newfoundland & labrador and PEI.
b) Quebec also averages higher than any other province in age as well.
c) *The already mentioned greeting issue. (cultural practices)
d) Population - Quebec has the highest population of any province @ 8.485 million people (2017).
However, in doing some research into the areas hardest hit so far by the virus aren't particularly populous.

Areas of greatest concern (high case #s) are :

- l’Abitibi-Témiscamingue
- Bas-Saint-Laurent
- Côte-Nord
- Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean
- Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
- Nord-du-Québec and the northern territories of Nunavik and Baie-James


Jerry, any info on these regions? Have I missed something?
 

RedCowboy

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---edited---

Italy may not be documenting many of the milder cases which would skew the results.
Also the Italian medical system is overwhelmed which will raise the lethality.

This video gave me a hint, in Italy the grandparents take care of the grandchildren while their parents go to work and kids are major vectors, that and 87% of Italy's deaths are people in their 70's .........probably were watching grandchildren after school where they spread every bug in town.
It used to be that way in America many years ago but now everyone takes their kids to daycare and some larger companies provide employee daycare, but in Italian society the Grandparents watch the grandkids after school and I bet this is a major factor, it's likely that a lot of school aged kids have this virus and don't even know it.

 
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paul1598419

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Unfortunately, few countries have tested many people at the outset of this virus. The ones that did seem to have gotten a handle on this sooner rather than later. I'm thinking of China and South Korea. These places did massive testing fairly early on and locked down parts of their populations that showed spread. Until we do that in the US, we are doomed to repeat reinfection from other parts of the country. No one believes a drug in testing will stop this and a vaccine is still about 18 months away. They have started phase one tests of new vaccine candidates. Hopefully one of these will be both safe and effective.
 

RedCowboy

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If everyone with any fear ran to the hospital for a test the medical system would be overwhelmed and it would likely spread more virus, but now we are seeing drive thru testing and this 5 minute test will make things work much smoother.
5 minute test starting next week, 50,000 per day to start and up to 5 million per month but I expect that will be expanded.........understand that testing everyone in America is a huge undertaking, just producing 330 million tests is a huge undertaking and people will need to be retested so testing those with symptoms first is prudent that and keeping schools closed until every school has these 5 minute test machines.......one machine could test a max of 12 per hour so you see how big of an undertaking testing everyone really is.

 
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