The CDC says 80% of the 1000 US covid19 deaths are people 65 years old or older which means if the mortality is 2% overall then for people under 64 years old it's actually 0.4% and if it's 1% overall then for 64 and under it's actually 0.2% and how many of those had underlying conditions, for healthy young people the risk of death is going to be pretty low so we will likely see the young and healthy going back to work but with new protocols to prevent spreading infection.
I expect we will see millions of Americans infected and 10's of thousands of covid19 deaths mostly in the urban and suburban areas after which we will have millions of survivors with immunity but there's always the chance of mutations which could present a big problem.
We are going to have to find a balance and we are all going to have to live to prevent spread for the foreseeable future as a vaccine is expected to be over a year away.
There are unknowns but slowing the spread will allow hospitals to save a higher percentage of the seriously ill as well as dealing with normal medical emergencies and that said I see the numbers going up substantially in the weeks/months ahead as 15% of the US population is over 65 so that's roughly 50 million people and another 23% are 45-64 years old.
On a bright note I heard that viruses have a tendency to mutate down over time.
The mortality rate from the virus is very low when modern medical support is available for the seriously ill. As we're seeing in Italy though, when the hospitals are saturated the mortality rate approaches that of serious illness requiring hospitalization. If you can't get oxygen and a ventilator when you need it.... The mortailty rate in Italy is ~10% due to a lack of hospital space and supplies. We need to not be Italy.
So far, this virus has not mutated much at all. That is good news for those looking for a vaccine to save us, but the Italy analogy is real. Currently, the administration has failed to make good on its promises as the automakers are asking for the money to retool to make ventilators and the administration is balking. So, if we are to get ventilators they will likely have to come from somewhere else.
Looks like NY has ~44% of all the confirmed infections, but only because they are testing at levels not seen anywhere else in the country. We are still in lock down in Washington State. That will likely continue until the numbers of the infected drop substantially. Regardless of Trump's hunches.
My concern is that little is known on how effective the immune system is regarding giving us immunity to multiple infections. Repeat contractions are possible and are documented. So if that is the case, it doesn't have to mutate much to do more damage. But for the vaccine purposes it is obviously a positive thing. What we know of is that there is currently two strains of Covid-19 active in populations. Without thorough testing and analysis, how sure are we that it already hasn't produced more strains?
Edit: It is currently speculation that the individuals contracted Covid-19 again after recovery. But it could be a case similar to what I am experiencing that you believe you are recovering/recovered but you truly haven't.
We have a big swell coming and our daily dead in the U.S. will likely be a 4 digit number every day for a while in a month or two from now.
Once we have immune survivors we will see the numbers start to come down but that will take time.
Once we have immune survivors it will be time to talk about going back to work.
Trump is early on the going back to work speech but Trump is not at fault for this global disaster and we are making ventilators and equipment as fast as we can, hotels are being converted into makeshift hospitals in NY for what's to come but people are not staying home yet, maybe in NY but not here in Ga. here the idiots are out and about and we are going to see a big swell because of it.
The old and susceptible are going to have to drastically modify their lifestyles until we have survivors with immunity in numbers that will slow the numbers down but that will take time.
Meanwhile our good for nothing congress is playing feather their nests and appease their big contributors while holding back the funds people need to pay that rent.
The so-called reinfections are likely just people who never cleared the infection completely. There is no reason to believe that once a person clears this that they won't be immune.
BTW, just read that Boris Johnson has tested positive with a fever and cough. He is self-isolating for now.
If you're talking about House Democrats they only got this bill last night after the Senate held onto it for days. Republicans didn't want the half trillion dollar slush fund to have oversight beyond Trump. They were also concerned that some people might get a little over their regular hourly wage, so THAT was the holdup.
I read that 7452 people die in the U.S. every day on average not counting any covid19 related deaths but anything out of the ordinary gets a lot of attention and causes panic until it's accepted, but losing loved ones to this will not be accepted, congress needs to stop playing games and laying blame, it's time for us to all work together because the worst is yet to come.
Leaders are remembered ultimately by how to handle disasters. Churchill was remembered for his stance in WW2, and Thatcher for the Falklands for an example. Neither were the best leaders, but they took charge and came out victorious. In many years time people won't care about the little things so much. They'll just care about the lives lost during the virus outbreak and how the country tried to prevent it.
As I said, House Democrats JUST got this bill. Give them at least as much time that the Senate took to pass this. Thanks to Democrats in the Senate the $500 billion slush fund has oversight beyond just Trump and he is precluded from getting funds personally from this fund. Democrats also made certain that hourly wage earners would see $250 billion of this.