RIP Canada's dollar

planters · Feb 4, 2016

The wars in the Middle East will only continue to escalate after the U.S. election no matter who is elected, and so will the refugee crisis. The Euro will decline in value, it will drop to $0.75 maybe not by the end of the year but if not it will be soon after. The Schengen area will come to an end, the U.K. will likely leave the E.U. and there will be widespread unrest in Germany and Sweden. As the wars continue to escalate so will terrorist attacks in the countries participating. All this will further destablize all of Europe. Eventually the wars will cause a big drop in Middle East oil production, that combined with an increase in demand due to the war effort will cause the price of oil to go back up. Sorry to sound so pessimistic about the future but I think that's what will happen.

Alan

I think this is a pretty good assessment. I am not so sure about the rebound in oil prices. The wars in the middle east need funding and will likely encourage each side to continue with production at all costs to provide revenue.

Europe will fracture. The UK will withdraw from the EU and Eastern Europe will benefit from the restrictions they have placed on Muslim immigration, but Putin, especially a poorer Putin, due to low oil prices, may threaten to annex some of these countries in search of the old USSR.

I am not sure, but I think most of the action will remain in Europe. The US is already pushing back against the stupidity that is killing Europe. They are about 10-20 years further over the cliff than we are. Canada is probably somewhere in between. As an aside, I wish you would please ask the execs at Hydro Quebec to please "go out and play in traffic".

I don't know much about the situation in China. Their territorial aggression is running counter to their own financial instability.

Kizaru · Feb 4, 2016

ElectricPlasma said:
If you're referring to taking advantage of Canada's low currency value for travelling purposes, I can only hope you're joking... For one CAD is currently higher value than AUD (Australian dollar) and for two Alaska is not located in Canada. :crackup: Alaska is a state in the USA, which borders Canada.

haha wow, i feel foolish now...:cryyy:

Pi R Squared · Feb 4, 2016

Alaskan said:
I never knew Alaska was part of Canada!

Just a bit of history for those young people who don't know, it was part of Russia from the late 1700s until 1867. "Seward's Folly" was no folly at all, it was $7.2 million well spent. There should be a statue and a monument to secretary Seward in the Capitol city of every state. He was a lawyer before being elected to the NY state senate in 1830, he was later elected governor of NY, and later a U.S. senator, in 1860 he failed to win the republican presidential nomination losing to Abraham Lincoln. He was appointed Secretary of State by Abraham Lincoln and continued as such under president Andrew Johnson where in 1867 he negotiated the purchase of Alaska from Russia. He passed away five years later in 1872 at age 71.

Alan

Trendkilla254 · Feb 4, 2016

Buy Gold. Don't buy money that is just a representation of debt.

Isaac Clarke · Feb 4, 2016

nah buy diamond..... an English man once said 'Diamonds Are Forvever'.

Cyparagon · Feb 4, 2016

You have a lot to learn about the diamond industry, sir.

planters · Feb 4, 2016

nah buy diamond..... an English man once said 'Diamonds Are Forvever'.

I get the joke, but it reminds me of the idea of a limited resource. I own several "perfect diamonds" They were not very expensive because thy were CVD grown. They are used as raman shift crystals. 20 years ago they would have been worth a fortune, but they are basically just carbon, lined up nicely.

There are a couple of ladies (chemists) in San Francisco that perfected the growth of very high quality ruby (doped Al2O3). They were pressured to include a florescent marker to prevent these crystals from undermining the multi billion dollar ruby trade. Good luck with universally enforcing that restriction...don't invest in rubies.

InfinitusEquitas · Feb 4, 2016

Precious metals are definitely a safer bet. Diamonds are only valuable due to extremely effective marketing, and a very tightly controlled supply. IIRC there are mines in Russia, Africa, and Canada, that can all double or triple the global supply and crash the diamond market.

There aren't even at all rare, from a geological perspective.

Not to mention now they can be pretty much manufactured on demand.

Gabe · Feb 4, 2016

So... Is gold really only as valuable as we say it is? Because it doesn't really seem like it's excellent electrical conductivity, malleability, and lustre makes it worth the $1100ish per ounce its at... Why are precious metals so safe anyways?

planters · Feb 4, 2016

So... Is gold really only as valuable as we say it is?

Yes. Even if it was valued for a purpose then that purpose is only as valuable as we say it is. It is the limited supply that matters. This is where gold shares or "paper gold" is a joke. If you invest in gold get real gold and deal with the inconvenience.

InfinitusEquitas · Feb 5, 2016

Gabe said:
Why are precious metals so safe anyways?

I don't mean to sound like a professorial crumudgeon, but that's a very complicated question.

Short answer, they have properties that make them valuable in an industrial setting, and they are hard to produce, insuring they are always in demand.

Gold just happens to be not so rare and scarce that it can be used for trade with relative ease, but also rare and scarce enough that it is not too commonplace.

Just as with diamonds though, gold has a significant perceived value.

Personally if I had the means for it, I would do some research an try to purchase objects/metals/etc that have both a demand due to rarity, and a demand due to application.

Some light nighttime reading... How Should Prices Be Determined? | Foundation for Economic Education

Cyparagon · Feb 5, 2016

A government can print/conjure more money. As much as it wants. No one can make more gold. We can mine it, but that's a trickle increase in the supply. I don't invest in gold, but that's the appeal.

Gabe said:
So... Is gold really only as valuable as we say it is?

Everything is only as valuable as we say it is.

RedCowboy · Feb 5, 2016

I was doing ok buying and selling ETF's Gold and silver until the last big drop, it seems to be tied to oil prices and that makes sense as energy cost are part of the mining and refinement.
Physical gold has a premium to buy up front, but in the long run offsets inflation, it's a safeguard against shrinking fiat currency values.

ElectricPlasma · Feb 5, 2016

Cyparagon said:
Everything is only as valuable as we say it is.

I see what you're saying and what you mean, however the emphasis on 'everything' confuses me.

Not everything is as valuable as we say it is, because of our nature. For example, take food and water into consideration. Food and water has to be valuable for us, because we need it to survive. Thus food and water has it's own value, rather than a "human set" value.

Cyparagon · Feb 5, 2016

ElectricPlasma said:
Food and water has to be valuable for us, because we need it to survive.

"Eyeglasses have to be valuable to us, because we need them to see." I'm not saying we shouldn't value things. On the contrary, we must. The reason we value something is because we deem it to be important. Important for what? How important? Important in what circumstances and in what quantities? That varies a lot, and depends on a lot. The fact remains we place value on things. Notice a bar of gold is generally considered to be worth more than a twinky, despite the ostensible inedible nature of one of them.

planters · Feb 5, 2016

I see what you're saying and what you mean, however the emphasis on 'everything' confuses me.

I see it as axiomatic. By using the word value the assumption is that we are making an anthropomorphic judgment. If people want OR need something, anything, then it has value.

I was doing ok buying and selling ETF's Gold and silver until the last big drop,

This are why gold prices have stagnated despite the real inflation in currencies that has occurred over the last twenty years. There is a lot more "gold" being bought and sold than actually exists ( above ground

).

RIP Canada's dollar

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