North Korea threat getting serious! :eek:

isnt that like 30 years?

Sorry, this "Kim" guy does behave like a subba dubba fool... like his father did for decades... and both do look so ugly :eg:

don't worry...

mojo_1234 said:

Sorry, this "Kim" guy does behave like a subba dubba fool... like his father did for decades... and both do look so ugly :eg:

don't worry...

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Problem is I don't think Kim Jr. is running this show. I think it's the military hardliners. Kim is too young to be leader just yet.
Korean society dosen't allow youth to be in charge of the older generals.
It's a completely age-ist regimented hierarchical system.

Older generals are more likely to be more radical /possibly more dangerous than Kim.

Most military experts don't believe North Korea can deliver a nuclear weapon in any shape or form. They simply don't have the expertise to them in a proper delivery platform. They don't really need them anyway, as they have massed artillery that could wreak havoc on cities and other areas. An attack would probably start with heavy shelling and then some sort of mass-invasion of Seoul. I think SK already assumes that it'll work out that way, so the front-line soldiers are simply there to delay the advanced to allow more civilians to evacuate. Seoul would probably be occupied for a little, but the advance would fizzle as air-power and the rest of SK's army would cut the north's supply lines off, while wrecking war infrastructure up north.

The most destructive problem would be after the war: having to deal with all the impoverished backwards people living in the North and all the refugees. Unification won't be a pretty thing, especially after a war. A war won't be nice for the world economy either.

Overall, I think NK is just bluffing again. Why they've ramped it up lately I don't know, but they always seem to make declarations whenever joint exercises are performed. Perhaps they're growing desperate as their financial institutions have been blacklisted and they're slowly being starved out of existence. China may assist them with some humanitarian goods, but NK doesn't receive much else, and certainly can't count on China to come to their aid in a war. The world passed them by after the Cold War ended. It must suck feeling that isolated.

Bionic-Badger said:

They don't really need them anyway, as they have massed artillery that could wreak havoc on cities and other areas.

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Fortunately much of what they have is dated, and in very poor repair.

The problem with an invasion scenario, is the north korean army, north korea as a whole, kind of have a bit of a morale/desertion problem... how many invaders would switch sides at the earliest opportunity?

NK has a half the population, and literally a fraction of the GDP of South Korea... not a good position from which to attack.

Unfortunately there is also a lot of momentum in NK to basically maintain the status quo, and with a population base of 25 million, economic starvation is not feasible.

InfinitusEquitas said:

Fortunately much of what they have is dated, and in very poor repair.

The problem with an invasion scenario, is the north korean army, north korea as a whole, kind of have a bit of a morale/desertion problem... how many invaders would switch sides at the earliest opportunity?

NK has a half the population, and literally a fraction of the GDP of South Korea... not a good position from which to attack.

Unfortunately there is also a lot of momentum in NK to basically maintain the status quo, and with a population base of 25 million, economic starvation is not feasible.

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Hard to know anything at this time. They threatened to attack. No mention of invasion at all. If there was an invasion they would not get too far at all.
The space between the DMZ is heavily mined.

Their weaponry may be appear to be old, but it still can cause serious damage.
They do have some newer equipment from Iran and China.

InfinitusEquitas said:

Fortunately much of what they have is dated, and in very poor repair.

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It's also pretty vintage stuff. Still, you don't need to super high-end artillery to pound a large target like a city, or positions in the wake of an invasion. It's mostly the initial damage that will cause a lot of problems; I don't think NK could sustain a war.

The problem with an invasion scenario, is the north korean army, north korea as a whole, kind of have a bit of a morale/desertion problem... how many invaders would switch sides at the earliest opportunity?

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I'm actually not too sure. Remember that it's not NK's military that is starving and suffering. They're the ones living "well" while the rest of the people suffer. I think after an initial invasion that a breakdown will occur as supply lines are cut off after the initial shock. I've read that NK's strategy would probably include relying on food/supplies in the areas they occupy, but that only lasts so long.

NK has a half the population, and literally a fraction of the GDP of South Korea... not a good position from which to attack

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They do, but a large fraction of the resources go to the military complex. That said, I don't think they could sustain a war for long.

Unfortunately there is also a lot of momentum in NK to basically maintain the status quo, and with a population base of 25 million, economic starvation is not feasible.

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That momentum can be used to keep them from trying anything stupid. Threats and saber rattling is one thing, but I'm sure the NK leadership knows that whatever damage they might cause in a war would be nothing compared to what gets brought to bear on them. They don't have China to help them out this time.

Everything I have seen, and ready about North Korea, and how it operates, leads me to draw parallels to stalin era soviet union. Overdeveloped personality cult, leadership through fear and purges, essentially starving peasant class, massive faulty infrastructure projects, complete information vacuum, torture camps - gulags, there is really no end to the similarities.

Watching videos from NK, I'm always remembering the soviet built capital where I grew up (Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan). The similarities are really uncanny.

Having seen first hand the "vintage" soviet weapons... they are more bark than bite. Maybe decades ago they would have been formidable, now though... not a chance. Given NK's gdp, they really can't afford to purchase much.

That's not to say that even if two thirds of them are crap, (more likely to blow up when fired, then to actually fire,) the remainder are not dangerous.

"I'm actually not too sure. Remember that it's not NK's military that is starving and suffering. They're the ones living "well" while the rest of the people suffer."

What you have to realize, is where that military comes from. It is drawn from the families of the peasants.

There only are only two things that keep 95%+ of the foot soldiers loyal. Self preservation, and fear for their families.

According to a former border guard, they all must have a family. Every man is responsible for his partner, anything one does, both get punished for. If it's desertion, the families are sent to torture camps.

What I'm getting at is, the whole system is a house of cards.

The threats are coming because maybe, just maybe, the top is finally experiencing some kind of problems.

For them not to realize the repercussions of an attack is simply not possible.

NK will most likely become even more insular going forward.

This picture is a perfect example of maintenance on heavy equipment, in a communist state...



Here's a little something to offset the tension;


Edit:

Kim Jong-Un Tours the North Korean Navy Flagship

Came across this little gem today

Hey, you shouldn't poke fun. North Korea is super serious about attacking this time! And this new guy is super intimidating, just like his father!

Mohrenberg said:

Hey, you shouldn't poke fun. North Korea is super serious about attacking this time! And this new guy is super intimidating, just like his father!

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Peace,
dave

Kim Jong Un reminds me of that drunk guy at a party.

Everyone around him tries to calm him down, but he feels he HAS to fight someone.

Yes, I think he resembles that remark mate! ha ha