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Old 04-08-2015, 03:26 PM #5441
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Talking Re: LPF's Religion

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Originally Posted by OASIS Founder View Post
Yes sir , it is you that is being daft. For one, I did not equate what I was saying to god or any divinity; the unicorn is on you. Second, I did not randomly come up with the water into the hole - you did. Finally - its interesting to note that you still have not given one example of chaos theory in nature. The wind blowing a leaf to point a is cause and effect, it happens in nature but is only supportive by dynamics, that's all. Chaos did not create the leaf, chaos did not create the wind - the dynamic interaction and result between the two cannot be represented by a scientific calculation. Chaos theory is the one suggesting that the lottery card can be calculated, not the other way around.

What I am suggesting lies in realism and fact, what you are suggesting is that science can break the bounds of pseudoscience using chaos theory, models and calculations. You've brought up Jeff G several times, so it's probably safe to say that you've been frequenting that park yourself.

Next you'll be trying to convince everyone we're all fractals.. After all it fits in with the chaos equations. Nature itself must support it, otherwise it's pseudoscience


Nature does support it, if nature can be termed as supporting something...as it has proven useful in storm tracking....therefore, its not pseudoscience.

Fractals are yet another thing you are bringing up out of context...did you want to go there? Do you have a problem with fractals too?




(No, we are not fractals)







So make a point.

You asked for examples.

I asked if water into a hole forming the shape of the hole was an example of order, and, you said yes.

My example, your confirmation.

Did you wish to retract your confirmation?



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Old 04-08-2015, 03:30 PM #5442
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Default Re: LPF's Religion

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So make a point.

I asked if water into a hole forming the shape of the hole was an example of order, and, you said yes.

My example, your confirmation.

Did you wish to retract your confirmation?

I never confirmed such a thing, go back, find it, and quote it. You were to busy being belligerent and self indulgent that you missed reading anything that was written. As I stated several replies ago - you proved this fact.
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Old 04-08-2015, 03:34 PM #5443
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Talking Re: LPF's Religion

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Originally Posted by OASIS Founder View Post
"It" is the domain in which we exist. We did not create gravity, we did not create magnetism, we did not create other forces or constants out there. The most we can do is observe, simulate, emulate - but not create the force which is already present, nor truly answer the question, why or how it came to be.

science = search for truth, using the scientific method. Which still boils down to ?s . The moment that man has reached a verdict , the question ends. But so does the progression of any real truths. Man makes the verdict for man regarding science, however to believe that verdict is universally compliant makes men ignorant. We think therefore we know is a mindset that scientifically minded individuals fall victim too frequently. What if we know nothing, and the reason why we have not advanced to the stars is due to our lack of reason when observing those things we are so convinced that we know through the science we have created around them.

I used the chaos theory in its proper term. Every example you used is flawed: 1) there is no deck of cards in nature, this is man made. 2) Mathematics - while it can be applied to everything in science, is also man made. Einstein proved that his math worked for the applications he applied them to - before that, the math wasn't there. But all these mathematics are modular , they will always apply around things which exist, and not necessarily be correct or universal in their application.

Order is everywhere. If you drop a bucket of water into a hole, there is order. The water did not turn into wine - it remained water. It didn't diminish, it did not dissipate. The plate you dropped , was fashioned by man using raw materials. It broke - but the sum of it's parts remain present. We can beat it - grind it into a pulp, melt it, but it's sum still remains. If we burn it - some of it will change, but it will be reordered to a different chemical composition. That change in composition shows that the molecules are not in chaos, but in order. This same effect can be seen in a nuclear explosion. The particles reorder over time - not spark off into chaos indefinitely. And as far as chaos theory being applied to weather models and maps - perhaps that's why forecasters are so bad at what they do :P ; you're right about the methodology being put into weather models - but incorrect about it's science. Most of the data relies on ordered calculations rather than random chaos data. Wind velocity, water vapor, high and low fronts, etc.. All of these are based on ordered data, and not chaos data.

Finally - sugar, despite where you dump it; would have remained sugar. If you would have drank that coffee with sugar - the composition would have changed, by order not by chaos. You wouldn't have drank the coffee then watched your atoms dissolve into nothingness just because you didn't want sugar in it. It would have been reordered in your body to a composition which it could use, by natural process.

Lets take your sand question as a final example. Suppose we take one grain of sand and mark it, track it for a week. Use that data and try to model where the grain of sand will be in a few days after the data has been calculated in our model. Does that mean, because we found no relevant cycle or order in the movements of this sand grain - that there isn't one? Or could it mean that the data in our model is not extended enough to see there is a pattern and cycle. One needs to ONLY look in the cycles, orbits, galaxies, and patterns of symmetry in the universe to see - there is order. If a raging fireball comes out of the skies and wipes out all life as we know it, on this planet. We will point to the skies and say "It is all chaos" (or at least in a hypothetical sense, provided there is someone left to do so).. Yet it has affected nothing in the grand scheme of the cosmos.
and

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I never confirmed such a thing, go back, find it, and quote it. You were to busy being belligerent and self indulgent that you missed reading anything that was written. As I stated several replies ago - you proved this fact.



That's you confirming it "has order".




Again, it is you not reading things and understanding them.



You want everything to have order...and, I might know where you are coming from....in that I do agree that there ARE reasons why two grains of sand end up next to each other, etc...but, when the NUMBER OF VARIABLES that lead to these outcomes is so overwhelming and so based upon so many OTHER variables, that we consider it random.

This is simulated by dealing you a hand of cards. Most will agree this is accepted as random.

Obviously, the exact way the deck was cut and shuffled, and so forth, makes the outcome what it is, but, its still considered to be random, because the factors are not interrelated in a predictable way. IE: The way the variables execute is independently derived. No one at the card factory made the card a particular thickness and slipperiness on purpose, the machining tolerances and weather that day for example had an impact...and the guy who cut the deck did not know what card was above/below the choice, etc, and so on and so forth.

These make it random.

The same for a storm's path. Yes, there ARE specific reasons that impact a storm's path and intensity, and, some are well understood, and, some are less well understood, and, some are random.

Theories attempt to predict storm paths using what is known, to predict what is not known.

Chaos theory doesn't say "generate random number sequences and plug them into storm path calculations"....as much as it takes things like ocean temperature at many measurement points and depths, wind speed at various locations and altitudes, pressure differences, other systems in motion at the time and in potential paths, etc, and roll them all up and see where a storm might go and how strong it might be where.

YOU say this is "Simple"....and that chaos theory takes this simple thing and makes it needlessly complicated.




YOU say:

And as far as chaos theory being applied to weather models and maps - perhaps that's why forecasters are so bad at what they do :P ; you're right about the methodology being put into weather models - but incorrect about it's science. Most of the data relies on ordered calculations rather than random chaos data. Wind velocity, water vapor, high and low fronts, etc.. All of these are based on ordered data, and not chaos data.

There is no such thing as "random chaos data", or, "chaos data", and, furthermore, the "ordered calculations" of weather data such as temperature, etc ARE WHAT CHAOS THEORY USES.

Again - Chaos theory doesn't say everything is chaotic, or, random. Its a way to take what is known (the data we DO have), and, use that data to make predictions about things we DON'T know, such as a storm's potential track and intensity.


Does that make sense yet?




We need to agree on what chaos theory really IS before using it in arguments.

I know what it is because I am involved with science and have enough exposure to its use in real life to know you are mistaken about it...so far.

If you adjust your understanding of chaos theory to mean something more long the lines of a way to crunch overwhelmingly large amounts of data related to random events, into potentially more usable predictions...


IE: Things may appear random, but, there may be hidden order...and that hidden order might be used to predict the outcome.


..and abandon your previous conception of it as generating "random chaos data" and other strange ideas, we can then move forward to your point itself if you still have one after that.


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Old 04-08-2015, 03:48 PM #5444
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Default Re: LPF's Religion

[QUOTE=Teej;1355855]Nature does support it, if nature can be termed as supporting something...as it has proven useful in storm tracking....therefore, its not pseudoscience.

Again - you bring up storm tracking. Lets suppose you are correct - and lets let chaos theory equations work with climatic modeling (which they don't) , one would have to be ignorant to see they are wrong a great deal of the time. Nonlinear equations do not compensate for the butterfly effect, and because of this we cannot rely on them. Not only can we not rely on them - we have to go back to current data and telemetry because the chaos models do not shift and re compensate for any shifts or plateaus in the climate.

Again, you are taking calculations based in a computer model and saying that they can be trusted as science. Yet nature does not stay in tandem with the calculations. And the viability of this science fails exactly at that moment. So please, try again with a real example.
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Old 04-08-2015, 03:52 PM #5445
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Default Re: LPF's Religion

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and






That's you confirming it "has order".

There is order with the water, falling through the hole.. Do I really have to write a thesis on the different facets that are at play with the water traveling through the hole to show where there is order? I sure do not hope so. The rest of my examples support the same suggestion
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Old 04-08-2015, 04:18 PM #5446
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Talking Re: LPF's Religion

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There is order with the water, falling through the hole.. Do I really have to write a thesis on the different facets that are at play with the water traveling through the hole to show where there is order? I sure do not hope so. The rest of my examples support the same suggestion
Quote:
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3) So can someone explain to me why everything has order?

I'm not sure you know what order is? "Every thing has order" is sort of a vague statement.

If you deal a hand of cards, does it have order?

If you pour a bucket of water into a hole, does the water in the shape of the hole have order?


So, the answer is that everything doesn't have order. Some things are random.
The CONTEXT of the bucket is that the water poured from it, into the hole, took the shape of the hole, and asking if that meant the water had order.


So, no, no thesis needed.

What IS needed is:

1) Instead of calling me belligerent, for disagreeing with you and saying why, when I say you said something you did say, and asking me to quote it because you forgot I said it...try to remember the conversation....to avoid repeated reminders and your anger at being accused of forgetting.

2) Understand what you are talking about, instead of using terms incorrectly and then calling people daft for saying you make no sense because you used the terms incorrectly. If the term used incorrectly was not immediately germane to your premises, it would be excusable...more of a clerical error so to speak..

When you use a term, such as chaos theory, as a pivotal part of your argument, and, the discrepancy between the real meaning, and how you use it negates your entire premise, it cannot be excusable. You cannot essentially argue that because Joan of Ark was born too late, that the Story of Noah is therefore invalid.

THIS thread is one of the few intellectually honest places you might find on the web.

If an argument is supportable, we accept that argument as at least being a valid argument, even if we may have opinions on the conclusion.

If an argument is invalid, due to a structural issue, such as a false premise, such as your chaos theory related premises, you WILL get called on that.


So, all you need to do is to make arguments that are valid.

So far, you have not...because you are unaware what chaos theory is about...and, think it says something it doesn't, and, are attacking what it doesn't represent.

If you KNOW that you are wrong about what it represents, then, you are using a straw man argument, which is also invalid. If you are ignorant of its true meaning, then you are simply arguing from a false premise, which is also invalid.


So, make a valid, supportable argument, and, we can go from there.


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Old 04-08-2015, 04:30 PM #5447
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Default Re: LPF's Religion

Chaos theory = non-linearity , Order = linearity

I do not think any other representation needs to be exampled in order to show I did not step off the Jurassic park bus.

Linearity can be found in far more abundance and far more frequently than any model the chaos theory can or will ever provide. We can speculate why tornadoes throw bricks thousands of feet into the air and try to calculate where it will land and why - but that has nothing to do with the proper upper level atmospheric conditions, the proper ground level conditions, or why the tornado forms on the ground rather than upside down. This data is found in ordered equations relative to current data. Chaos theory nor any calculations can provide this information. Can the storm path, tracking, velocity or intensity be properly calculated by chaos theory plots? No, nor would I want to trust in it when doppler provides real time telemetry at the storm's core. NASA can forecast using historical models and current data, without the need for chaos theory or its bases for modeling trends and projections.
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Old 04-08-2015, 04:42 PM #5448
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Talking Re: LPF's Religion

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Originally Posted by OASIS Founder View Post
Chaos theory = non-linearity , Order = linearity

I do not think any other representation needs to be exampled in order to show I did not step off the Jurassic park bus.

Linearity can be found in far more abundance and far more frequently than any model the chaos theory can or will ever provide. We can speculate why tornadoes throw bricks thousands of feet into the air and try to calculate where it will land and why - but that has nothing to do with the proper upper level atmospheric conditions, the proper ground level conditions, or why the tornado forms on the ground rather than upside down. This data is found in ordered equations relative to current data. Chaos theory nor any calculations can provide this information. Can the storm path, tracking, velocity or intensity be properly calculated by chaos theory plots? No, nor would I want to trust in it when doppler provides real time telemetry at the storm's core. NASA can forecast using historical models and current data, without the need for chaos theory or its bases for modeling trends and projections.
Sigh.

Stop using that "=" format.

You don't have any examples of using it properly.


you are, once again, wrong about what chaos theory means. It does NOT "=non-linearity"

And order doesn't necessarily = linearity either.



Look, please, go study chaos theory, and come back when you know what it is.

I'll give you a quick summary:

In common usage, "chaos" means "a state of disorder".

However, in chaos theory, the term is defined more precisely. Although there is no universally accepted mathematical definition of chaos, a commonly used definition says that, for a dynamical system to be classified as chaotic, it must have the following properties:

1) it must be sensitive to initial conditions;
2) it must be topologically mixing; and
3) it must have dense periodic orbits.

Start there.

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Default Re: LPF's Religion

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Sigh.

Stop using that "=" format.

You don't have any examples of using it properly.


you are, once again, wrong about what chaos theory means. It does NOT "=non-linearity"

And order doesn't necessarily = linearity either.



Look, please, go study chaos theory, and come back when you know what it is.

I'll give you a quick summary:

In common usage, "chaos" means "a state of disorder".

However, in chaos theory, the term is defined more precisely. Although there is no universally accepted mathematical definition of chaos, a commonly used definition says that, for a dynamical system to be classified as chaotic, it must have the following properties:

1) it must be sensitive to initial conditions;
2) it must be topologically mixing; and
3) it must have dense periodic orbits.

Start there.

Rofl

Chaos rules are:
extreme sensitivity to initial conditions
cause and effect are not proportional
nonlinearity

In fact you argued with my response which had textbook equivalency. Hey, if you like to argue - keep going, the horse is dead.

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Old 04-08-2015, 08:07 PM #5450
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Talking Re: LPF's Religion

Quote:
Originally Posted by OASIS Founder View Post
Chaos theory = non-linearity , Order = linearity

I do not think any other representation needs to be exampled in order to show I did not step off the Jurassic park bus.

Linearity can be found in far more abundance and far more frequently than any model the chaos theory can or will ever provide.

We can speculate why tornadoes throw bricks thousands of feet into the air and try to calculate where it will land and why - but that has nothing to do with the proper upper level atmospheric conditions, the proper ground level conditions, or why the tornado forms on the ground rather than upside down. This data is found in ordered equations relative to current data.

Chaos theory nor any calculations can provide this information. Can the storm path, tracking, velocity or intensity be properly calculated by chaos theory plots? No, nor would I want to trust in it when doppler provides real time telemetry at the storm's core. NASA can forecast using historical models and current data, without the need for chaos theory or its bases for modeling trends and projections.



Quote:
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Rofl

Chaos rules are:
extreme sensitivity to initial conditions
cause and effect are not proportional
nonlinearity

In fact you argued with my response which had textbook equivalency. Hey, if you like to argue - keep going, the horse is dead.


I wish the HORSE WERE dead, but, actually, its really just getting tired of you calling it a cow.






I would like to see the context of that textbook you reference.

"Chaos Rules" seems to be a clue that there's a problem somewhere.




For example, I have a suspicion that the "non-linearity" and "linearity" you reference are not being used any more appropriately than the Chaos Theory related stuff you posted.


IE: CHAOS THEORY and, what was first CALLED chaos back in around the mid-1970's, are NOT THE SAME THING.


To state it another way: Yorke and Li used those terms to describe CHAOS.


Chaos ≠ Chaos Theory.

Linear and nonlinear refer to types of mathematical equations, not to whether a thing has order or is chaotic.

A circle can be plotted w/o chaos theory, but, its NOT linear.

A straight line can be plotted w/o chaos theory, and, it IS linear.

The out put proportional to the input issue is simply a reflection of that, as a linear equation will have a constant output, and a nonlinear equation will have a non-constant output.


IE: Graph one, and you get a line, graph the other, and, you get something else, like a circle or a curve, etc.


So, chaos might have first been used to describe something non-linear, but, you are assuming linear = order....and, everything but a line is described as non-linear.

Non-linear can = order as well.

In fact, if you can find an equation to describe something, it is safe to say you've FOUND its "order".



So, once again, I implore you to evaluate what this stuff MEANS and stop pasting excerpts you think say what you want them to.


Another example that might help:

Chaos theory concerns deterministic systems whose behavior can in principle be predicted.

Chaotic systems are predictable for a while and then appear to become random.

The amount of time for which the behavior of a chaotic system can be effectively predicted depends on three things:

1) How much uncertainty we are willing to tolerate in the forecast;

2) how accurately we are able to measure its current state;

3) and a time scale depending on the dynamics of the system, called the Lyapunov time.


Some examples of Lyapunov times are: chaotic electrical circuits, ~1 millisecond; weather systems, maybe a couple of days ; the solar system, 50 million years.

In chaotic systems the uncertainty in a forecast increases exponentially with elapsed time. Hence doubling the forecast time more than squares the proportional uncertainty in the forecast.

This means that in practice a meaningful prediction cannot be made over an interval of more than two or three times the Lyapunov time. When meaningful predictions cannot be made, the system appears to be random.


This is WHY they DO use chaos theory to help predict a storm's path. Why would they use it if it DIDN'T help?

Radar (doppler) doesn't tell you the storm's projected path, its tells you its current location and speed/direction.

The reason that map they show on the news SHOWS a path, is BECAUSE they plotted a path based upon a lot of math you imply doesn't work....when, in fact, it was developed for that very purpose.

IE: Radar doesn't have ESP. Radio waves go out, hit stuff, and come back. Back on frequency shifts in reflected signals, the speed and direction can be CALCULATED. So, if you see a storm heading north at 60 mph at a certain height, etc...and you know there's a jet stream its going to collide with, and/or a warmer water it will pass over, etc, you can plug in some calculations to predict where it will go LATER, after it hits those conditions.

So, you also misunderstand how doppler radar works...sigh...because you say it does what chaos theory does, so we don't need chaos theory.

Please, please, please understand that chaos theory uses data such as you seem to think it doesn't....to find the patterns of order.






----------------------------------
YOU keep making statements that assume that Chaos Theory says things are random, when, in fact, it is used in the science of finding hidden order in what appear to be random phenomenon.

IE: Its to FIND the "order" you seem to be trying so hard to imply IT says is not there.


The irony of the misunderstanding is not lost on me, and, it IS hard to respond seriously sometimes...but, I am HOPING that this golden nugget of truth will seep past your filters, and a little light will go off in your head, and you'll have a eureka moment.

-------------------------------------

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Old 04-08-2015, 08:40 PM #5451
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Default Re: LPF's Religion

@Teej / Oasis Founder,
Feel free to start your own thread to continue your discussion if you want?
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Old 04-08-2015, 09:05 PM #5452
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Default Re: LPF's Religion

Or explain what chaos theory has to do with religion?
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Old 04-08-2015, 10:02 PM #5453
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Talking Re: LPF's Religion

Quote:
Originally Posted by T_Warne View Post
Or explain what chaos theory has to do with religion?
LOL

That was my point, its not germane in the context used.

His point was that there was order in the universe, and, that chaos theory was wrong, because he mistakenly thought it said that there wasn't.



Order in universe was equated with ID/a creator to make that order.

Chaos sounded like the opposite of that, and he didn't know the THEORY was involved with FINDING order in what appeared chaotic...so he assumed it must be wrong. (I say he, as a default pronoun, but, could be a she)






The arguments sound like a person who went to missionary school and somewhat like arguments I might have heard from friends who went to seminary schools, etc. Maybe like a BS in psychology, or liberal arts, but not physics, and then seminary graduate work? Kind of a frustrated voice...a burden they carry, and this is a release maybe?

[Arm chair psychobabble - I admit it, bald faced guesses based upon a combination of vocabulary, choice of phrasing, tone, and methods]

I WOULD be dismayed to find they studied science in any way that approached the topic of concern though...as that school should lose its license.

A seminary school on the other hand produces this exact pattern of communication...but there's something else there, I can feel it, a burden that presses down, taking up a lot of their time.


It does make me feel more sympathetic.

(I'm probably wrong about all of that....but, hey, its what I am seeing....right or wrong)

Confirm that I SHOULD feel sympathetic, as there IS a burden there you bear....or tell me I'm off base....and you are not working hard to bear this burden.

Maybe religion helps you TO bear this burden, and you see me as kicking this support out from under you?

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Old 04-08-2015, 11:49 PM #5454
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Default Re: LPF's Religion

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Old 04-09-2015, 12:10 AM #5455
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That was a great show.
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Old 04-21-2015, 09:26 PM #5456
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Default Re: LPF's Religion

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