Hurricane Irma

Rivem · Sep 8, 2017

Sounds like they're starting to send evacuation orders out in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas around Tampa now. Hope you hear from her soon.

Jander, how are evacuations in Ft. Myers? Sounds like Miami and the Keys are really ramping up evacuation orders and preparation, and you're not far off from there.

Florida is fortunately the one state that really knows how to handle hurricane evacuations, so I think the people will be safe. No telling how bad the destruction will be though.

NightExplorer96 · Sep 8, 2017

That's insane! I was just at that beach(Maho Beach) in St. Martin in January. I remember even when winds were calm, the waves sometimes had enough force to climb up the beach all the way to the road. It's a very cool beach to check out if you get the chance.

Hurricane Jose also seems to have gone to a Category 3 now, not good either way. Hopefully that one will stay over the Atlantic. Problem is, Bermuda is right in it's path, at least so far.

Goodluck everyone

-Alex

Rivem · Sep 9, 2017

This is literally the most ridiculous storm I've watched in years. Despite predictions, Irma's back at Cat 5, bigger, and looking like it's going to track along the Gulf Coast of Florida now. Outer bands are moving over southern Florida now, and looks like US landfall will start tomorrow night and seriously on Sunday morning.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma

Inland conditions aren't looking good to keep it moving or dissipate it, so the worry is that it might just run into the US and stop somewhere after it's done with Florida.

I don't know what to think any more, but those winds are way too strong, so anybody in Florida or nearby really should evacuate if possible. Otherwise, some huge preparations need to be made.

Edit: Looks like a few of the Leeward islands hit by Irma will get a bit of a Cat 4 Jose tomorrow as well.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-jose

Can't forget Katia and the earthquake both down in southern Mexico either.

lasersbee · Sep 9, 2017

At least Jose won't follow in Irma's tracks...
Still... Florida seems on Irma's hit list..:undecided:

Jerry

CurtisOliver · Sep 9, 2017

Yes. It is too late for Florida. There is no way that Irma won't hit it now. Irma is currently a Category 4 as well as Jose.
What is more alarming to me is that far off on the coast of Africa is another chaotic looking formation that could very well develop into a hurricane later on. If so, what a season!

Emialias · Sep 9, 2017

CurtisOliver said:
Yes. It is too late for Florida. There is no way that Irma won't hit it now. Irma is currently a Category 4 as well as Jose.
What is more alarming to me is that far off on the coast of Africa is another chaotic looking formation that could very well develop into a hurricane later on. If so, what a season!

another one?? but why tho earth please chill out

edit: looks like we wont get much of anything here in the carolinas, but im pretty sure florida is just within arms reach of this thing now

Rivem · Sep 9, 2017

CurtisOliver said:
Yes. It is too late for Florida. There is no way that Irma won't hit it now. Irma is currently a Category 4 as well as Jose.
What is more alarming to me is that far off on the coast of Africa is another chaotic looking formation that could very well develop into a hurricane later on. If so, what a season!

Actually down to Cat 3 for a little while now. Looks like Cuba is really weakening it. We'll have to see how it fares when it gets to more open water again as it moves northward.

It's terrible that Jose is going to hit a bunch of those Leeward Islands again though. Barbuda was frantically evacuating the people that were trying to repair Irma's decimation of the island.

Edit: There's indeed a risk of another hurricane, but that has to be expected as we approach the peak of hurricane season. The reason this one is getting more attention is the US impact and intensity of the storms. Still have a bit less than three months to go before it's over though.

Emialias · Sep 9, 2017

Rivem said:
Actually down to Cat 3 for a little while now. Looks like Cuba is really weakening it.

im hearing that irma is gonna keep going just a little and run up the gulf side, which is over warmer water so its just going to get stronger if it goes that way

CurtisOliver · Sep 9, 2017

Don't panic Merpie. It isn't confirmed by a long shot yet. I just noticed a formation near Africa that looks suspicious. Just noticed that the National Hurricane Centre is also keeping an eye on that system.

And yes Rivem, Category 3. Jose is currently stronger than Irma. But Irma is still incredibly dangerous and could strengthen yet again if Merpie is correct.

Rivem · Sep 9, 2017

Merpie101 said:
im hearing that irma is gonna keep going just a little and run up the gulf side, which is over warmer water so its just going to get stronger if it goes that way

The problem is the land which has difficult to determine effects. It may strengthen to a lower end Cat 4 if it's more over water than Florida, but hitting Florida likely won't let it get much stronger.

Worst case would be missing Florida and going entirely into the Gulf which would bump it back up before hitting coastline.

Either way, predictions are hard with this sort of thing, so a lot is uncertain and up to luck.

I remember when I was learning about atmospheric meteorology, most of our best predictions for this sort of thing come from really well-trained neural nets that take in as much data as possible. The statistical models are insane to look at as a human.

CurtisOliver · Sep 9, 2017

Rivem said:
Either way, predictions are hard with this sort of thing, so a lot is uncertain and up to luck.

Yes, there's a reason why hurricane prediction models look like this.

Rivem · Sep 9, 2017

CurtisOliver said:
Yes, there's a reason why hurricane prediction models look like this.

I'm sorry Curtis, but they do not. People really need to stop sharing those because it's really misinforming people. That one looks like a plot of several paths, but the ones that are really bad are the ********* plots with several different colored lines.

That's more of a way to compare different predicted paths over time from different models. Some of them are much better than others, but they really aren't discernable to non-meteorologists.

The actual predictions are much more accurate and readable which is where the cone comes from. People also seem to think the cone represents size though.

Edit::crackup: wut. LPF is censoring the name of the plot which comes from the most popular long, thin pasta.

CurtisOliver · Sep 9, 2017

Sorry Rivem.

I was thinking of predicting in its raw stages, not those types of plots already shared. (the cone models)

Oh, yes. Sp.ag.hetti is not allowed on LPF. :wtf: :crackup:
Maybe Avery does not like that form of pasta.

Rivem · Sep 9, 2017

CurtisOliver said:
Sorry Rivem. I was thinking of predicting in its raw stages, not those types of plots already shared. (the cone models)

Oh, yes. Sp.ag.hetti is not allowed on LPF. :wtf: :crackup:
Maybe Avery does not like that form of pasta.

No worries Curtis, I just keep seeing people on FB using those sorts of models to justify all sorts of ridiculous fears of where it will hit or complain about how nobody knows where they'll actually go, and it's painful for me to see.

I really do wonder what Avery has against such a popular Italian food.

CurtisOliver · Sep 9, 2017

No problem Rivem, that wasn't what I was trying to do.

I know what you mean.
I don't know. Bad experience in an italian restaurant?

dden4012 · Sep 9, 2017

What happened to the sharp right turn irma was supposed to take?
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Hurricane Irma

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