Raffle! Win Big Prizes! (And help fund LPF!)

You can have my senkat diode too.

read north in the thread a little bit, you'll find your answer. Okay he assigned everyone a number and had his daughter pull them out of a hat.

Jaseth said:

I am serious TJ, the chance of me not winning a single of the first 60 prizes is 0.18%. Do I have to tell you how tiny a chance that is? I don't like being a crybaby but obviously there has been some kind of mistake.. unless I am the most unlucky guy on Earth today.

Click to expand...

Let me calculate the probability and I'll check back to you.

There is a very small chance at people hitting the lottery, into the multi-millions actually, but it happens everyday.

Cool I got 2 of Dave's gems

How do we go about getting them anyway do I need to contact Dave or are you shipping them out Glen?

Lasher

Lol don't be hate'n

Sweet i got a dorcy full body heatsink and LPC sled, not bad for $21 worth of tickets!

Jaseth purchased 40 tickets.
Quantity of tickets purchased (total): 398

X: Winning prize [quantity]


We use a Binomial (Bernoulli) distribution, with p: Probability of winning ; q: Probability of not winning.

p = favorable cases / total cases = 40 / 398 = 0,1
q = 1 - p = 0,9
n: number of drawn tickets = 68
Probability of X = 1 (winning ONE prize)
X--Bi(68 ; 0,1) = (68!/1!*(68-1)!)*(0,1^1)*(0,9^68-1) = 0,00584463


I hope I didn't miss anything, though the calculated probability is rather small...

Ok i know you guys want to ship all the prizes to me. I mean, come on, those who won >1 prizes must ship the other prizes to those who did not win
Nah, j/k
Jaseth, you bought 40 tickets right? I think the total tickets bought were about 400 or? It might be impossible to NOT win but everyone has bad luck.. Anyway, let's wait for Niko's calculation

Edit, Niko, does this mean that Jaseth had only a 10% to win?

Jaseth said:

I am serious TJ, the chance of me not winning a single of the first 60 prizes is 0.18%. Do I have to tell you how tiny a chance that is? In other words, there was a 99.82% chance of me winning at least one of those first 60 prizes.. I don't like being a crybaby but obviously there has been some kind of mistake.. unless I am the most unlucky guy on Earth today.

Click to expand...

You got me curious so I ran the numbers.

Your first chance to win was 40/394 (10.152284%). Your second was 40/393, and so forth. Each time someone else's ticket was drawn, your chance of not being chosen decreased. Here's the chances of not being chosen:

1 89.847716%
2 89.821883%
3 89.795918%
4 89.769821%
5 89.743590%
6 89.717224%
7 89.690722%
8 89.664083%
9 89.637306%
10 89.610390%
11 89.583333%
12 89.556136%
13 89.528796%
14 89.501312%
15 89.473684%
16 89.445910%
17 89.417989%
18 89.389920%
19 89.361702%
20 89.333333%
21 89.304813%
22 89.276139%
23 89.247312%
24 89.218329%
25 89.189189%
26 89.159892%
27 89.130435%
28 89.100817%
29 89.071038%
30 89.041096%
31 89.010989%
32 88.980716%
33 88.950276%
34 88.919668%
35 88.888889%
36 88.857939%
37 88.826816%
38 88.795518%
39 88.764045%
40 88.732394%
41 88.700565%
42 88.668555%
43 88.636364%
44 88.603989%
45 88.571429%
46 88.538682%
47 88.505747%
48 88.472622%
49 88.439306%
50 88.405797%
51 88.372093%
52 88.338192%
53 88.304094%
54 88.269795%
55 88.235294%
56 88.200590%
57 88.165680%
58 88.130564%
59 88.095238%
60 88.059701%

To get the chance of not being chosen all the way through the 60th drawing, (I think) we multiply these together to yield 0.0919%.

-Trevor

I have an idea, because people were talking about it in the thread before the raffle. Should we start a raffle trade thread? for people who want to trade prizes, or multiple smaller prizes for a larger or vice versa. **I love my prize (thank you for donating rangedunits!) and I doubt I would trade it. But the idea of this thread sounds like it might be beneficial for some people? I'm not sure what do you guys think.

Jaseth said:

I basically said for each draw, there is a 90% chance of me not winning. Then I multiplied it by itself 60 times to get the probability that I would lose every single time, 60 times in a row, and I got 0.0018 which is 0.18%. This is WITHOUT including the fact that with every drawn ticket, my chances increase. To me this pretty much tells me that something went wrong in the draw.

Click to expand...

It doesn't work that way. You can't multiply the first probability calculated for ONE chance to get the probability for 40 chances of success (winning something).


But let's get away from these calculations.

Imagine your final probability of winning is of 0,1, which means you have a 10% chance of winning something. There's still a 90% chance of NOT winning anything. So yeah, sith can happen

So there you have it - the chance of me not winning a single one of the first 60 prizes is 0.0919%

Click to expand...

I'm sorry, where did you get that number from?

Krutz won 1st prize!

It couldn't of gone to a nicer guy, this makes my day along with me actually winning 5th.

Ray

Here are the people that won one of the prizes I donated. Please PM me with your shipping address.

@ Jaseth -- Congratulations! You won 65th prize. Send me your address. I'll send you a freakin' prize (You fail to fully grasp the concept of PROBABILITY)

Now . . . . How do I find out who "anonymous" is?

Peace,
dave

Glutton - 245mW red burning module W/ Rkcstr driver, Donated by Dave
Glutton - 1mW bare tube HeNe W/ PSU(12V), Donated by Dave
Glutton - AC-DC voltage converter, Donated by Dave


bryce007 - Nova "star" lens sized for an Alpha, Donated by Dave
bryce007 - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave


Lasher - 1mW bare tube HeNe W/ PSU(12V), Donated by Dave
Lasher - 5-pack of black "happiness" wooden matches, Donated by Dave

FireMyLaser - 50mW Newwish style bluray pointer, Donated by Dave, (daguin)

Yobresal - Senkat red diode (300mA = 200mW) donated by Dave

Jayrob - Senkat red diode (300mA = 200mW) donated by Dave (I'll pop yours into the envelop with the lens I'm sending you)

Tech_Junkie - Senkat red diode (300mA = 200mW) donated by Dave

Aberration - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave

Martianpc - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave

lasersbee - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave

ReNNo - 7mW 635 nm diode, Donated by Dave

wolfhunter9154 - black (rubberized) Newwish style host, Donated by Dave

Byrnz93 - silver Newwish style host W/ button, switch, and foam ring Donated by Dave

Quisp - 3mW red 3.3mm module W/ APC (3V), Donated by Dave

You want some cheese to go with that? J===lol- firemylaser bought one and got 10th place-hahaha-I got nuthin' but I will be OK with that--eventually mm(*.*)mm

I am shipping the ones I donated and those from bobhaha, and rangedunits and unanimous, as well as the CNI pointers, IIRC, the rest are being sent from donor to winner. -Glenn