I got a DX200 and it seems really weak. From cold state, it takes about 5 seconds pointing it at my palm from about 4 inches before I can tell its burning me.
Re: can you estimate laser power by pointing at ha
Honest answer? NO!
Gotta go get it metered to really know. You can guess, but you'll have a nice +/- 200% margin of error. Every person has a different pain threshold, absorbance of their skin, you probably aren't holding the laser 100% steady, etc. Any guess I gave you on this situation would have to be "withing a tolerance of 3 magnitues" .
I can pretty much guarantee your DX200 ain't putting out 200mW, but how much it actually is I have no idea. Perhaps try around local universities to see if they can meter it for you, or otherwise consider paying 2 way shipping to have one of us on LPF with a reputable meter to test it out for you.